Summary Statement



Rainfall for March 2020

Rainfall was above normal at most of the monitoring stations with normal rainfall at Wewak and Kavieng and below normal rainfall at Momote. Nadzab had its 3rd wettest March in 45 years while Goroka recorded its 3rd wettest March in 58 years of record.



Accumulated rainfall for January to March 2020

Rainfall was generally normal to above normal for the past season apart from Kavieng where rainfall was below normal. The outlook issued in December 2019 was consistent at Nadzab and Goroka and near-consistent at the remaining locations.



Outlooks for May to July 2020

1. SCOPIC

The outlook for Madang, Wewak, Goroka and Misima shows below normal rainfall as the most likely outcome with normal the next most likely. Above normal is the least likely. For Kavieng, above normal is the most likely outcome with below normal the next most likely, normal is the least likely. For all the other monitoring stations the outlook offers little guidance ad the chances of above normal, normal and below normal are similar (Climatology). Confidence ranges from very low to very high.

2. ACCESS-S

Monthly rainfall: Momase region - The outlook offers little guidance, as chances of wetter, near average and drier than average are similar. Highlands region - Wetter than average is the most likely outcome New Guinea Islands region - Wetter than average is favoured for Manus, with near average for the other islands. Southern region - Near average to above average is favoured for the next month Monthly maximum temperature - Above average maximum temperature is favoured for the whole country Monthly minimum temperature - Above average minimum temperature is favoured for the whole country Seasonal rainfall: Momase region - The outlook offers little guidance as chances of above normal, and below normal are similar. Highlands region - Wetter than average is the most likely outcome New Guinea Islands region - Wetter than average is favoured for most parts of the region except for Kimbe, Hoskins and Rabaul (Climatology) Southern region - Near average rainfall is favoured for the region, except for Gulf Province and DEntrecasteaux Islands of Milne Bay Province where above rainfall is favoured. Seasonal maximum and minimum temperature - Above average temperatures are favoured for the whole country.



Valid As Of: 2020-04-20 13:31:21

Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - March 2020
StationJanuary 2020February 2020March 202033%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall(mm)Median Rainfall (mm)Ranking
Madang (1944-2020)329.6209.1492.0309.7399.5340.464/71
Nadzab (1973-2020)186.4196.6288.8142.1202.7160.743/45
Wewak (1894-2020)239.466.2138.8130.7183.2155.827/64
Vanimo (1918-2020)209.6140.8215.7361.0279.2
Goroka (1948-2020)288.8256.8416.0208.0279.4239.056/58
Momote (1949-2020)306.0213.2274.4275.0337.9305.921/64
Kavieng (1916-2020)228.2189.6370.0281.4374.9334.459/87
Misima (1917-2020)298.8197.0353.4215.0320.0253.870/95
Port Moresby (1875-2020)199.479.0332.0160.0275.6211.4118/132
Table 2: Three-Month Rainfall for January to March 2020
Station3 Months Total33%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall (mm)Median Rainfall (mm)RankingForecasted ProbsVerification
Madang (1944-2020)1031.0901.21083.5975.841/7120/40/40Near-consistent
Nadzab (1973-2020)644.8435.3525.8470.938/4523/38/39Consistent
Wewak (1894-2020)444.4367.8454.4427.938/6440/33/27Near-consistent
Vanimo (1918-2020)767.8944.1878.730/30/40
Goroka (1948-2020)961.6643.0781.0709.548/5425/30/45Consistent
Momote (1949-2020)793.6764.8923.6811.326/6431/30/39Near-consistent
Kavieng (1916-2020)787.8852.9993.5927.525/8426/37/37Near-consistent
Misima (1917-2020)849.2688.8916.9783.355/9142/35/23Near-Consistent
Port Moresby (1875-2020)610.4536.0680.6601.478/13239/32/29Near-consistent
Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlook using SCOPIC for May to July 2020
StationBelow Normal (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Normal (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Above Normal (prob)Leps Rate(%)Hit Rate (%)
Madang (1944-2020)47630.935816.7182257
Nadzab (1973-2020)32274.334372.934-321
Wewak (1894-2020)40554.634694.626650
Vanimo (1918-2020)34575.031685.535-224
Goroka (1948-2020)42206.733271.525540
Momote (1949-2020)28798.1371040.035033
Kavieng (1916-2020)35639.826787.239047
Misima (1917-2020)47470.244706.093149
Port Moresby (1875-2020)3986.932156.229237
Not Available
StationLower Tercile (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Middle Tercile (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Upper Tercile (prob)
Madang
Nadzab
Wewak
Momote
Kavieng
Misima
Port Moresby
Daru