Summary Statement



Rainfall for October 2018

Below normal received across the country except Goroka and Kavieng received above normal.



Accumulated rainfall for August to October 2018, including outlook verification

Below normal rainfall was received at Vanimo and Wewak. Madang, Momote and Nadzab received normal rainfall whilst Goroka, Kavieng and Port Moresby received above normal rainfall. Forecast was consistent at Madang, inconsistent at Port Moresby and near-consistent for all the monitoring stations. Three months rainfall total was not available for Misima.



Outlooks for December 2018 to February 2019

1. SCOPIC

Wewak, Misima and Port Moresby: The outlook shows below normal as the most likely outcome, normal the next most likely and above normal is the least likely. Madang and Kavieng: The outlook shows normal as the most likely outcome, with normal the next most likely. Below normal is the least likely. Nadzab: The outlook shows above normal the most likely outcome, normal the next most likely and below normal is the least likely outcome. Goroka: Mixed outlook with similar chances for below no

2. POAMA

The POAMA model favors below normal for Misima and Port Moresby. Normal favored for Daru and above normal is favored for the rest of the monitoring stations.



Valid As Of: 2018-11-20 11:50:50

Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - October 2018
StationAugust 2018September 2018October 201833%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall(mm)Median Rainfall (mm)Ranking
Madang (1944-2018)260.4248.688.6207.1284.4252.99/69
Nadzab (1973-2018)73.5157.043.871.0114.097.49/44
Wewak (1956-2018)116.0135.2158.0191.5265.6223.211/63
Vanimo (1918-2018)145.0148.081.8145.3224.3176.25/60
Goroka (1948-2018)114.4174.6176.8117.7169.5148.037/52
Momote (1949-2018)299.0268.2174.6183.0265.0227.720/65
Kavieng (1916-2018)261.4372.0306.2163.1275.1213.969/91
Misima (1917-2018)
Port Moresby (1875-2018)79.447.29.810.132.218.739/121
Table 2: Three Monthly Table - August to October 2018
Station3 Months Total33%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall (mm)Median Rainfall (mm)RankingForecasted ProbsVerification
Madang (1944-2018)600.4392.4607.1471.948/6938/39/23 (26)Consistent
Nadzab (1973-2018)274.3367.8391.9335.89/4434/33/33 (2)Near-consistent
Wewak (1956-2018)409.2500.1655.0573.011/6335/41/24 (25)Near-consistent
Vanimo (1918-2018)374.8486.3554.9521.48/5734/34/32 (-2)Near-consistent
Goroka (1948-2018)465.8276.082.6338.937/5233/33/34 (-3)Near-consistent
Momote (1949-2018)741.8648.0901.7758.020/6533/33/34 (-1)Near-consistent
Kavieng (1916-2018)939.6508.9716.0627.175/8533/34/33 (-2)Near-consistent
Misima (1917-2018)456.0756.0625.840/43/17 (26)
Port Moresby (1875-2018)136.458.998.776.339/12135/31/34 (-1)Inconsistent
Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlook using SCOPIC for December 2018 to February 2019
StationBelow Normal (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Normal (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Above Normal (prob)Leps Rate(%)Hit Rate (%)
Madang (1944-2018)13926.2461103.8411048
Nadzab (1973-2018)26423.831510.043342
Wewak (1956-2018)41361.831460.228341
Vanimo (1918-2018)31718.636918.033-324
Goroka (1948-2018)36634.427743.037-219
Momote (1949-2018)28758.836915.436025
Kavieng (1916-2018)15841.145989.9401044
Misima (1917-2018)39676.736877.425127
Port Moresby (1875-2018)74412.534558.8191243
Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlook using POAMA2 for December 2018 to February 2019
StationLower Tercile (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Middle Tercile (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Upper Tercile (prob)
Madang 2794028111045
Nadzab274162150452
Wewak363811646148
Momote307533087240
Kavieng33846995658
Misima61646988130
Port Moresby55423950836
Daru56348080415