Summary Statement



Rainfall for February 2019

Rainfall was below-normal at Port Moresby and Momote. normal at Nadzab, Wewak and Vanimo and above normal at Madang. Madang recorded its highest February on record, while Port Moresby recorded its sixth-driest February on record. At the time of compiling this publication, no reports of February rainfall were received from Goroka, Kavieng and Misima.



Accumulated rainfall for December 2018 to February 2019

Normal rainfall was received at Wewak and Momote, and above normal occurred at all other monitoring stations. Port Moresby recorded its sixth-wettest December-February on record, mainly due to record-high January rainfall. The outlook was consistent at Nadzab, inconsistent at Port Moresby and near-consistent at all other stations. Three months total was not available for Misima, Kavieng and Goroka.



Outlooks for April to June 2019

1. SCOPIC

Port Moresby - the outlook favours below normal rainfall. Madang & Misima - the outlook shows below normal as the most likely outcome, normal the next most likely and above normal is the least likely. Nadzab, Wewak, Vanimo, Momote, Kavieng & Goroka - the outlook offers little guidance, as the chances of above normal, normal and below normal are similar. Confidence ranges from very low to good.

2. POAMA

The rainfall outlook favours below normal across the country.



Valid As Of: 2019-03-15 12:03:30

Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - February 2019
StationDecember 2018January 2019February 201933%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall(mm)Median Rainfall (mm)Ranking
Madang (1944-2019)352.0303.0596.0232.2335.0267.171/71
Nadzab (1973-2019)217.0343.6179.6104.1187.4152.528/45
Wewak (1956-2019)119.6189.0126.8103.7140.7117.836/63
Vanimo (1918-2019)250.0425.8305.0208.4317.3270.242/65
Goroka (1948-2019)286.8196.8195.3267.7232.5
Momote (1949-2019)350.0282.9167.6200.9303.5233.513/63
Kavieng (1916-2019)344.2213.6226.2303.3261.0
Misima (1917-2019)303.6208.8208.2341.7274.6
Port Moresby (1875-2019)122.8593.464.8129.3220.3170.26/131
Table 2: Three-Month Rainfall for December 2018 to February 2019
Station3 Months Total33%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall (mm)Median Rainfall (mm)RankingForecasted ProbsVerification
Madang (1944-2019)1251.0962.21103.81014.754/6913/46/41Near-Consistent
Nadzab (1973-2019)740.2423.8510.0489.043/4326/31/43Consistent
Wewak (1956-2019)435.4361.8460.2412.038/6241/31/28Near-consistent
Vanimo (1918-2019)980.8718.6918.0808.243/5831/36/33Near-consistent
Goroka (1948-2019)634.4743.0702.036/27/37
Momote (1949-2019)800.5758.8915.4819.229/6228/36/36Near-consistent
Kavieng (1916-2019)841.1989.9931.315/45/40
Misima (1917-2019)676.7877.7766.539/36/25
Port Moresby (1875-2019)781.0421.5558.8468.6122/12747/34/19Inconsistent
Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlook using SCOPIC for April to June 2019
StationBelow Normal (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Normal (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Above Normal (prob)Leps Rate(%)Hit Rate (%)
Madang (1944-2019)43902.7391075.318943
Nadzab (1973-2019)35270.7293503.36-326
Wewak (1956-2019)37570.230671.433-139
Vanimo (1918-2019)31586.536739.833-226
Goroka (1948-2019)34333.032425.334-317
Momote (1949-2019)38710.827897.135-137
Kavieng (1916-2019)29697.433889.138020
Misima (1917-2019)48610.639883.3131846
Port Moresby (1875-2019)51195.427288.9221647
Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlooks using POAMA2 for April to June 2019
StationLower Tercile (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Middle Tercile (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Upper Tercile (prob)
Madang64878.0121091.024
Nadzab67249.012342.021
Wewak58560.05671.037
Momote49703.018860.033
Kavieng52689.06838.042
Misima91612.05823.04
Port Moresby88189.05294.07
Daru65548.030816.05