Summary Statement



Rainfall for September 2019

Above normal rainfall was recorded at Wewak and Port Moresby whilst normal rainfall was recorded at Nadzab, Vanimo and Goroka. The remaining stations recorded below normal rainfall. Momote recorded its 8th driest September on record whilst Port Moresby recorded its 3rd wettest September on record.



Accumulated rainfall for July to September 2019

Port Moresby recorded above normal rainfall whilst Vanimo and Momote recorded below normal rainfall. The remaining stations recorded normal rainfall. The outlook issued in August was inconsistent at Vanimo, Momote and Port Moresby, and near-consistent all other monitoring stations.



Outlooks for November 2019 to January 2020

1. SCOPIC

The outlook offers little guidance as the chances of below normal, normal and above normal are similar for all monitoring stations.

2. POAMA

The outlook favours above normal rainfall at Nadzab, the New Guinea Islands, Misima and Port Moresby. At Madang and Daru, the outlook shows near-equal chances of normal and above normal, with below normal the least likely. For Wewak, the outlook offers little guidance as the chances of below normal, normal and above normal rainfall are similar.



Valid As Of: 2019-10-16 15:34:04

Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - September 2019
StationJuly 2019August 2019September 201933%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall(mm)Median Rainfall (mm)Ranking
Madang (1944-2019)871474.3177.9120.710/70
Nadzab (1973-2019)77.6187.67556.2133.6107.919/45
Wewak (1894-2019)58.8208.2225.4142.9206.8180.346/63
Vanimo (1918-2019)206.899137127.4193155.830/64
Goroka (1948-2019)45.2113.275.468124.796.820/57
Momote (1949-2019)195.6415.4135.7209277249.28/66
Kavieng (1916-2019)212.8294.2135.6143.2209169.226/92
Misima (1917-2019)131.4172.282.6103.4255.8183.823/94
Port Moresby (1875-2019)26.866.7102.410.63121120/122
Table 2: Three-Month Rainfall for July to September 2019
Station3 Months Total33%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall (mm)Median Rainfall (mm)RankingForecasted ProbsVerification
Madang (1944-2019)322.7466.8401.257/35/8
Nadzab (1973-2019)340.227746239619/4440/30/30Near-consistent
Wewak (1894-2019)492.4466.1591.5543.427/6374/19/7Near-consistent
Vanimo (1918-2019)442.846858451619/6024/33/43Inconsistent
Goroka (1948-2019)233.8210292.625223/5331/33/36Near-consistent
Momote (1949-2019)745.8767106591422/6525/31/44Inconsistent
Kavieng (1916-2019)642.6509727.260747/8630/31/39Near-consistent
Misima (1917-2019)386.2319.5572.142236/9271/21/8Near-Consistent
Port Moresby (1875-2019)195.945.794.367100/10439/31/30Inconsistent
Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlook using SCOPIC for November 2019 to January 2020
StationBelow Normal (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Normal (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Above Normal (prob)Leps Rate(%)Hit Rate (%)
Madang (1944-2019)32960341127.234-138
Nadzab (1973-2019)33381.533477.934-327
Wewak (1894-2019)35439.836545.429951
Vanimo (1918-2019)34674.933854.833033
Goroka (1948-2019)33524.734641.933-229
Momote (1949-2019)32735.234898.334047
Kavieng (1916-2019)3277734949.934-135
Misima (1917-2019)356023375232346
Port Moresby (1875-2019)36344.136476.6281941
Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlook using POAMA2 for November 2019 to January 2020
StationLower Tercile (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Middle Tercile (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Upper Tercile (prob)
Madang1996042111639
Nadzab243452441652
Wewak394272850633
Momote277201888855
Kavieng247671894258
Misima125531573873
Port Moresby332721541152
Daru54414753148