|Rainfall for January 2020|
Rainfall was above normal at Nadzab, Wewak and Goroka, below normal at Vanimo and Kavieng, and normal at rest of the monitoring stations. Wewak recorded its third highest rainfall for January in 65 years of record.
|Accumulated rainfall for November 2019 to January 2020|
Below normal rainfall was recorded in the Momase Region and at Port Moresby, whilst normal rainfall was recorded at Goroka and Momote. Above normal rainfall was received at Wewak and Kavieng. The outlook issued in October was near-consistent at all locations. Wewak had its third wettest November-January period in 62 years of record. A three-month total was not available for Misima station.
|Outlooks for March to May 2020|
|Wewak and Southern Region - the outlook shows below normal rainfall as the most likely outcome with normal the next most likely. Above normal is the least likely except for Wewak.
Goroka - the outlook shows above normal as the most likely with normal the next most likely. Below normal is the least likely.
NGI Region, Momase except Wewak - the outlook offers little guidance as the chances of above normal, normal and below normal are similar (Climatology).
Confidence ranges from very low to good.|
Daru - the outlook favours normal rainfall. Kavieng - the outlook for March to may is mixed, with similar chances for below normal and above normal totals, normal is the least likely. Remaining monitoring sites - the outlook favours below normal rainfall.
|Valid As Of: 2020-03-10 10:58:26|
|Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - January 2020|
|Station||November 2019||December 2019||January 2020||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall(mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking|
|Port Moresby (1875-2020)||87.8||0.8||199.4||148.0||235.0||193.6||80/132|
|Table 2: Three-Month Rainfall for November 2019 to January 2020|
|Station||3 Months Total||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall (mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking||Forecasted Probs||Verification|
|Port Moresby (1875-2020)||288.0||344.1||476.6||402.8||35/120||36/36/28||Near-consistent|
|Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlook using SCOPIC for March to May 2020|
|Station||Below Normal (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Normal (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Above Normal (prob)||Leps Rate(%)||Hit Rate (%)|
|Port Moresby (1875-2020)||42||364.6||33||479.7||25||10||49|
|Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlook using POAMA2 for March to May 2020|
|Station||Lower Tercile (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Middle Tercile (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Upper Tercile (prob)|