Summary Statement



Rainfall for December 2019:

Rainfall was below-normal to normal recorded across PNG. Port Moresby recorded its driest December in 129 years of record. The previous lowest was 2.8 mm in 1940.



Accumulated rainfall for October to December 2019, including outlook verification:

Below-normal to normal rainfall was recorded at most parts of the country, except for Kavieng which recorded above-normal rainfall. Madang recorded its seventh driest October to December on record. The rainfall outlooks issued in September were generally near-consistent or consistent. Three-month totals for Misima and Wewak were unavailable.



Outlooks for February to April 2020:

1. SCOPIC:

Misima: The outlook shows a near-equal likelihood of below-normal and normal rainfall. Above-normal is the least likely. Nadzab, Goroka and Kavieng: The outlook shows a near-equal likelihood of above-normal and normal rainfall. Below-normal is the least likely. Port Moresby: The outlook shows below-normal as the most likely outcome, with normal the next most likely. Above-normal is the least likely. Madang, Wewak, Vanimo and Momote: The outlook offers little guidance as the chances of above-normal, normal and below-normal are similar. Confidence range from very low to moderate skill.

2. POAMA:

Nadzab: The outlook favours above-normal. Daru: The outlook favours normal rainfall. Wewak: A mixed outlook with similar chances of below-normal and above-normal rainfall; normal is the least likely. All other stations: The outlook generally favours below-normal rainfall.



Valid As Of: 2020-01-16 13:10:41

Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - December 2019
StationOctober 2019November 2019December 201933%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall(mm)Median Rainfall (mm)Ranking
Madang (1944-2019)96.0294.2296.4344.3452.2385.720/71
Nadzab (1973-2019)163.290.090.2122.8192.3155.511/45
Wewak (1894-2019)319.6165.8121.5174.5142.640/64
Vanimo (1918-2019)183.6156.0271.0197.1290.7252.340/66
Goroka (1948-2019)201.6154.4154.0162.2249.7179.916/52
Momote (1949-2019)321.6294.2240.6160.4339.8288.517/66
Kavieng (1916-2019)202.0557.4206.4259.3346.5317.813/93
Misima (1917-2019)234.6238.2171.7257.0220.556/94
Port Moresby (1875-2019)64.678.80.890.9161.0129.01/129
Table 2: Three-Month Rainfall for October to December 2019
Station3 Months Total33%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall (mm)Median Rainfall (mm)RankingForecasted ProbsVerification
Madang (1944-2019)686.6841.01084.9976.77/7045/35/20Consistent
Nadzab (1973-2019)343.4 317.0401.4342.823/4444/16/40Near-consistent
Wewak (1894-2019)536.2647.8572.041/40/19
Vanimo (1918-2019)610.6581.6721.2635.129/5943/40/17Near-consistent
Goroka (1948-2019)510.0429.3601.6522.425/4932/34/34Near-consistent
Momote (1949-2019)856.4689.0866.9784.640/6633/28/29Consistent
Kavieng (1916-2019)965.8712.7867.7802.076/9133/37/30Near-consistent
Misima (1917-2019)546.0732.0631.040/35/25
Port Moresby (1875-2019)153.2172.0291.0202.237/11549/42/9Consistent
Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlooks using SCOPIC for February to April 2020
StationBelow Normal (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Normal (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Above Normal (prob)Leps Rate(%)Hit Rate (%)
Madang (1944-2019)29939.5371151.434-141
Nadzab (1973-2019)27392.437497.836133
Wewak (1894-2019)37433.930519.733-144
Vanimo (1918-2019)29725.534911.837236
Goroka (1948-2019)27610.035745.438226
Momote (1949-2019)36759.031934.933-121
Kavieng (1916-2019)26820.637957.237228
Misima (1917-2019)41707.939946.6201042
Port Moresby (1875-2019)43471.931592.9261046
Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlooks using POAMA2 for February to April 2020
StationLower Tercile (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Middle Tercile (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Upper Tercile (prob)
Madang4690421115433
Nadzab363191846446
Wewak454281357542
Momote527202184427
Kavieng557741298933
Misima737081293015
Port Moresby494651259339
Daru587280101515