Summary Statement



Rainfall for September 2020

Rainfall was below normal at Vanimo, Momote, Kavieng and Port Moresby, whilst above normal at Madang, Nadzab, Wewak and Misima. Goroka recorded normal rainfall.



Accumulated Rainfall for July to September 2020, including Outlook Verification

Accumulated rainfall was below normal at Vanimo, Momote and Goroka, normal at Kavieng, Port Moresby and Wewak, and above normal at Madang, Nadzab and Misima.



Outlooks for November 2020 to January 2021

1. SCOPIC

Wewak and Port Moresby - the outlook shows above normal as the most likely outcome, with normal the next most likely. Below normal is the least likely. Misima - the outlook shows a near-equal likelihood of normal and above normal rainfall. Below normal is the least likely. The outlook for all other monitoring stations offers little guidance as the chances of above normal, normal and below normal is similar. Confidence range from very low to high skills.

Valid As Of: 2020-11-17 12:22:44

Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - September
StationJuly 2020August 2020September 202033%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall(mm)Median Rainfall (mm)Ranking
Madang55.4218.4211.669.9175.5119.954/71
Nadzab171.6148.0156.456.6133.2104.637/46
Wewak104.4230.0214.2145.1207.8180.444/64
Vanimo96.8263.066.4127.5192.9153.78/65
Goroka11.052.476.068.0123.096.621/58
Momote210.6292.6188.0199.7276.7248.320/67
Kavieng182.6302.8123.2141.5208.4168.825/93
Misima140.2175.6302.4100.1252.9182.470/95
Port Moresby49.020.45.210.731.721.022/123
Table 2: Three-Month Rainfall for July to September 2020
Station3 Months Total33%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall (mm)Median Rainfall (mm)RankingForecasted ProbsVerification
Madang485.4318.5465.4395.548/7042/39/19Inconsistent
Nadzab476.0281.7459.9387.033/4534/32/34Near-consistent
Wewak548.6467.1590.3542.834/6443/36/21Near-consistent
Vanimo426.2465.3571.2510.919/6131/33/36Inconsistent
Goroka139.4215.0292.0250.57/5432/34/34Near-consistent
Momote691.2753.51059.0901.017/6631/32/37Inconsistent
Kavieng608.6510.7726.3620.643/8731/34/35Near-consistent
Misima618.2321.0570.4411.062/9343/35/22Inconsistent
Port Moresby74.646.794.767.560/10535/32/33Near-consistent
Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlooks using SCOPIC for November 2020 to January 2021
StationBelow Normal (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Normal (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Above Normal (prob)Leps Rate(%)Hit Rate (%)
Madang36957.0311123.633-139
Nadzab36376.332474.532-211
Wewak23440.234551.743948
Vanimo31674.832849.637-135
Goroka34528.031641.835-233
Momote37736.634894.729040
Kavieng38780.029963.733-136
Misima26602.036752.038346
Port Moresby14335.941475.0452042
NO LONGER IN USE
StationLower Tercile (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Middle Tercile (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Upper Tercile (prob)
Madang
Nadzab
Wewak
Momote
Kavieng
Misima
Port Moresby
Daru