|Rainfall for February 2019|
Rainfall was below-normal at Port Moresby and Momote. normal at Nadzab, Wewak and Vanimo and above normal at Madang. Madang recorded its highest February on record, while Port Moresby recorded its sixth-driest February on record. At the time of compiling this publication, no reports of February rainfall were received from Goroka, Kavieng and Misima.
|Accumulated rainfall for December 2018 to February 2019|
Normal rainfall was received at Wewak and Momote, and above normal occurred at all other monitoring stations. Port Moresby recorded its sixth-wettest December-February on record, mainly due to record-high January rainfall. The outlook was consistent at Nadzab, inconsistent at Port Moresby and near-consistent at all other stations. Three months total was not available for Misima, Kavieng and Goroka.
|Outlooks for April to June 2019|
|Port Moresby - the outlook favours below normal rainfall.
Madang & Misima - the outlook shows below normal as the most likely outcome, normal the next most likely and above normal is the least likely.
Nadzab, Wewak, Vanimo, Momote, Kavieng & Goroka - the outlook offers little guidance, as the chances of above normal, normal and below normal are similar.
Confidence ranges from very low to good.|
The rainfall outlook favours below normal across the country.
|Valid As Of: 2019-03-15 12:03:30|
|Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - February 2019|
|Station||December 2018||January 2019||February 2019||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall(mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking|
|Port Moresby (1875-2019)||122.8||593.4||64.8||129.3||220.3||170.2||6/131|
|Table 2: Three-Month Rainfall for December 2018 to February 2019|
|Station||3 Months Total||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall (mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking||Forecasted Probs||Verification|
|Port Moresby (1875-2019)||781.0||421.5||558.8||468.6||122/127||47/34/19||Inconsistent|
|Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlook using SCOPIC for April to June 2019|
|Station||Below Normal (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Normal (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Above Normal (prob)||Leps Rate(%)||Hit Rate (%)|
|Port Moresby (1875-2019)||51||195.4||27||288.9||22||16||47|
|Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlooks using POAMA2 for April to June 2019|
|Station||Lower Tercile (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Middle Tercile (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Upper Tercile (prob)|