Summary Statement



Rainfall for June 2018 (Refer to Table 1)

Below normal was received at the Southern Region and Kavieng station whilst above normal was received at Momote, Goroka and Wewak. Rest of the Momase Region received normal rainfall.



Accumulated rainfall for April to June 2018 (Refer to Table 2)

Misima received normal rainfall and the forecast was near consistent. Three months total was not available for the other stations.



Outlook for August to October 2018 (Refer to Table 3)

1. SCOPIC

For Misima and Wewak, the outlook shows normal as the likely outcome with below normal the next most likely, above normal rainfall is the least likely. At Madang, there is a near-equal likelihood of normal or below normal rainfall for the coming three months. For all the remaining monitoring stations the outlook offers little guidance as the chances of below normal, normal and above normal are similar. Confidence ranges from very low to very high skill.

2. POAMA

POAMA favours normal rainfall at Daru and Madang. The outlook favours below normal for the Southern Highlands and above normal for Wewak and the NGI Region. For Nadzab, the outlook favours little guidance as the chances of below normal, normal and above normal are similar.



Valid As Of: 2018-08-02 14:11:25

Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - June 2018
StationApril 2018May 2018June 201833%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall(mm)Median Rainfall (mm)Ranking
Madang (1944-2018)211.4158.0225.4205.237/68
Nadzab (1973 - 2018)90.071.263.7120.581.819/45
Wewak (1894-2018)263.8257.0173.2228.2204.452/63
Vanimo (1918-2018)223.8189.0168.4245.8202.428/64
Goroka (1984-2018)91.056.644.676.056.043/54
Momote (1949-2018)137.0334.8231.0314.0281.049/64
Kavieng (1916-2018)252.6163.8192.0274.7216.117/88
Misima (1917-2018)383.4357.8124.8125.0276.1201.831/92
Port Moresby (1875-2018)61.61.410.943.122.612/120
Table 2: Three Month Rainfall - April to June 2018
Station3 Months Total33%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall (mm)Median Rainfall (mm)RankingForecasted ProbsVerification
Madang (1944-2018)894.81073.71007.224/29/47
Nadzab (1973 - 2018)270.7350.3322.332/37/31
Wewak (1894-2018)570.1672.8642.529/37/34
Vanimo (1918-2018)576.0723.6650.434/33/33
Goroka (1984-2018331.0426.7391.532/35/33
Momote (1949-2018)711.0897.3812.530/38/32
Kavieng (1916-2018)688.6898.0784.638/35/27
Misima (1917-2018)866.0614.6915.3764.556/9119/29/52Near-consistent
Port Moresby (1875-2018)170.5267.6207.820/34/46
Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlook using SCOPIC for August to October 2018
StationBelow Normal (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Normal (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Above Normal (prob)Leps Rate(%)Hit Rate (%)
Madang (1944-2018)38392.439607.1232652
Nadzab (1973 - 2018)34267.833391.933226
Wewak (1894-2018)35500.141655.0342551
Vanimo (1981-2018)34486.334554.932-229
Goroka (1984-2018)33276.033382.634-331
Momote (1949-2018)33648.033901.734-121
Kavieng (1916-2018)33508.934716.033-226
Misima (1917-2018)40456.043756.0172651
Port Moresby (1875-2018)3556.93198.734-133
Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlook using POAMA2 for August to October 2018
StationLower Tercile (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Middle Tercile (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Upper Tercile (prob)
Madang 28311.042568.030
Nadzab33199.034342.033
Wewak18454.027627.055
Momote24650.018857.058
Kavieng27489.09659.064
Misima67226.018593.015
Port Moresby5836.0981.033
Daru563.080134.015