Summary Statements



Rainfall for December 2018

Normal to above normal rainfall received across the country except that Wewak in Momase Region received below normal.



Accumulated rainfall for October to December 2018, including outlook verification

Momase & Southern Regions received below normal to normal rainfall. Highlands Region received normal rainfall and NGI received normal to above normal rainfall. Forecast was consistent at Madang & Momote and near consistent for the rest of the stations.



Outlooks for February to April 2019

1. SCOPIC

Wewak,Port Moresby & Misima: The outlook shows below normal as the most likely outcome with normal the next most likely for Port Moresby and Misima; and above normal next most likely for Wewak. Vanimo & Goroka: The outlook shows above normal as the most likely outcome with normal the next most likely and below normal the least likely. Madang, Nadzab & Kavieng: The outlook shows near-equal likelihood of above-normal and normal rainfall. Below-normal is the least likely. Momote: The outlook offers little guidance as the chances of above normal, normal and below normal are similar. Confidence is very low to high.

2. POAMA

The forecast shows below normal as the favored or most likely outcome for all the stations except for Daru with normal rainfall favored and Madang with above normal the most likely.



Valid As Of: 2019-01-30 14:39:37

Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - December 2018
StationOctober 2018November 2018December 201833%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall(mm)Median Rainfall (mm)Ranking
Madang (1944-2018)98.6332.4352.0343.5448.5389.428/70
Nadzab (1973-2018)43.895.4217.0122.2188.8154.033/44
Wewak (1956-2018)158.0199.4119.612.0176.9142.719/63
Vanimo (1918-2018)81.8243.4250.0180.6283.8243.834/65
Goroka (1948-2018)176.8117.8286.8157.0234.0174.540/51
Momote (1949-2018)174.6336.2350.0260.4339.0288.548/65
Kavieng (1916-2018)306.2304.2344.2256.7341.2310.662/92
Misima (1917-2018)288.4117.0303.6167.7256.7215.072/93
Port Moresby (1875-2018)10.22.8122.877.5152.0116.069/128
Table 2: Three Month Rainfall for October to December 2018
Station3 Months Total33%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall (mm)Median Rainfall (mm)RankingForecasted ProbsVerification
Madang (1944-2018)783.0847.71084.9976.715/6941/36/23Consistent
Nadzab (1973-2018)356.2315.7403.1341.523/4340/18/42Near-consistent
Wewak (1956-2018)477.0539.1650.7572.514/6139/39/22Near-consistent
Vanimo (1918-2018)575.2564.1697.9611.621/5839/38/23Near-consistent
Goroka (1948-2018)581.4424.0601.6500.237/4734/32/34Near-consistent
Momote (1949-2018)860.8689.0866.9784.640/6533/37/30Consistent
Kavieng (1916-2018)954.6709.5870.9796.074/9034/36/30Near-consistent
Misima (1917-2018)709.0560.9756.2636.357/9139/34/27Near-consistent
Port Moresby (1875-2018)135.8173.6267.7212.026/11441/41/18Near-consistent
Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlook Using SCOPIC for February to April 2019
StationBelow Normal (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Normal (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Above Normal (prob)Leps Rate(%)Hit Rate (%)
Madang (1944-2018)27931.7371145.836-130
Nadzab (1973-2018)25381.638505.337041
Wewak (1956-2018)40438.426519.834-141
Vanimo (1918-2018)27696.430909.343237
Goroka (1948-2018)24610.035746.641236
Momote (1949-2018)37761.132935.831-216
Kavieng (1916-2018)20806.740977.940423
Misima (1917-2018)54747.536959.0101746
Port Moresby (1875-2018)49433.729589.322843
Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlook using POAMA2 for February to April 2019
StationLower Tercile (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Middle Tercile (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Upper Tercile (prob)
Madang42904.0121154.046
Nadzab46319.012464.042
Wewak55428.05575.040
Momote58720.012844.030
Kavieng42774.027989.031
Misima70708.06930.024
Port Moresby58465.09593.033
Daru5872.0831015.012