|Rainfall for June 2018 (Refer to Table 1)|
Below normal was received at the Southern Region and Kavieng station whilst above normal was received at Momote, Goroka and Wewak. Rest of the Momase Region received normal rainfall.
|Accumulated rainfall for April to June 2018 (Refer to Table 2)|
Misima received normal rainfall and the forecast was near consistent. Three months total was not available for the other stations.
|Outlook for August to October 2018 (Refer to Table 3)|
|For Misima and Wewak, the outlook shows normal as the likely outcome with below normal the next most likely, above normal rainfall is the least likely. At Madang, there is a near-equal likelihood of normal or below normal rainfall for the coming three months.
For all the remaining monitoring stations the outlook offers little guidance as the chances of below normal, normal and above normal are similar.
Confidence ranges from very low to very high skill.|
POAMA favours normal rainfall at Daru and Madang. The outlook favours below normal for the Southern Highlands and above normal for Wewak and the NGI Region. For Nadzab, the outlook favours little guidance as the chances of below normal, normal and above normal are similar.
|Valid As Of: 2018-08-02 14:11:25|
|Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - June 2018|
|Station||April 2018||May 2018||June 2018||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall(mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking|
|Nadzab (1973 - 2018)||90.0||71.2||63.7||120.5||81.8||19/45|
|Port Moresby (1875-2018)||61.6||1.4||10.9||43.1||22.6||12/120|
|Table 2: Three Month Rainfall - April to June 2018|
|Station||3 Months Total||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall (mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking||Forecasted Probs||Verification|
|Nadzab (1973 - 2018)||270.7||350.3||322.3||32/37/31|
|Port Moresby (1875-2018)||170.5||267.6||207.8||20/34/46|
|Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlook using SCOPIC for August to October 2018|
|Station||Below Normal (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Normal (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Above Normal (prob)||Leps Rate(%)||Hit Rate (%)|
|Nadzab (1973 - 2018)||34||267.8||33||391.9||33||2||26|
|Port Moresby (1875-2018)||35||56.9||31||98.7||34||-1||33|
|Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlook using POAMA2 for August to October 2018|
|Station||Lower Tercile (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Middle Tercile (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Upper Tercile (prob)|