|Rainfall for August 2018|
Normal to above normal rainfall was received across the country. Madang recorded the 4th highest rainfall on record for the month of August while Port Moresby recorded the 7th highest. Nadzab station's rainfall was not available.
|Accumulated rainfall for June to August 2018, including outlook verification|
Below normal rainfall was received at Vanimo. Madang, Goroka and Momote received above normal rainfall whilst the rest of the monitoring stations received normal. The forecasts were consistent at Madang and Vanimo, inconsistent at Momote and Near consistent for the rest of the monitoring stations. Three months total was not available for Nadzab station.
|Outlooks for October to December 2018|
|Madang and Misima: the outlook shows below normal as the most likely outcome, with normal the next most likely. Above normal is the least likely.
Nadzab: mixed outlook with similar chances for below normal and above normal, near normal is the least likely outcome
Wewak, Vanimo and Port Moresby: the outlook shows near-equal likelihood of below normal and normal rainfall. Above normal is the least likely.
Highlands & NGI Region: the outlook offers little guidance as the chances of above n|
The POAMA model favors below normal for NAdzab, Misima and Port Moresby. Normal favored for Daru and above normal is favored for the rest of the monitoring stations.
|Valid As Of: 2018-09-26 14:22:07|
|Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - August 2018|
|Station||June 2018||July 2018||August 2018||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall(mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking|
|Port Moresby (1875-2018)||1.4||21.6||79.4||6.8||24.3||13.7||112/119|
|Table 2: Three Month Rainfall - June to August 2018|
|Station||3 Months Total||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall (mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking||Forecasted Probs||Verification|
|Port Moresby (1875-2018)||102.4||53.0||103.7||81.8||69/105||23/32/45||Near-consistent|
|Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlook using SCOPIC for October to December 2018|
|Station||Below Normal (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Normal (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Above Normal (prob)||Leps Rate(%)||Hit Rate (%)|
|Port Moresby (1875-2018)||41||173.6||41||267.7||18||26||56|
|Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlook using POAMA2 for October to December 2018|
|Station||Lower Tercile (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Middle Tercile (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Upper Tercile (prob)|