|Rainfall for December 2019:|
Rainfall was below-normal to normal recorded across PNG. Port Moresby recorded its driest December in 129 years of record. The previous lowest was 2.8 mm in 1940.
|Accumulated rainfall for October to December 2019, including outlook verification:
Below-normal to normal rainfall was recorded at most parts of the country, except for Kavieng which recorded above-normal rainfall. Madang recorded its seventh driest October to December on record. The rainfall outlooks issued in September were generally near-consistent or consistent. Three-month totals for Misima and Wewak were unavailable.
|Outlooks for February to April 2020:|
|Misima: The outlook shows a near-equal likelihood of below-normal and normal rainfall. Above-normal is the least likely.
Nadzab, Goroka and Kavieng: The outlook shows a near-equal likelihood of above-normal and normal rainfall.
Below-normal is the least likely.
Port Moresby: The outlook shows below-normal as the most likely outcome, with normal the next most likely.
Above-normal is the least likely.
Madang, Wewak, Vanimo and Momote: The outlook offers little guidance as the chances of above-normal,
normal and below-normal are similar.
Confidence range from very low to moderate skill. |
Nadzab: The outlook favours above-normal. Daru: The outlook favours normal rainfall. Wewak: A mixed outlook with similar chances of below-normal and above-normal rainfall; normal is the least likely. All other stations: The outlook generally favours below-normal rainfall.
|Valid As Of: 2020-01-16 13:10:41|
|Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - December 2019|
|Station||October 2019||November 2019||December 2019||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall(mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking|
|Port Moresby (1875-2019)||64.6||78.8||0.8||90.9||161.0||129.0||1/129|
|Table 2: Three-Month Rainfall for October to December 2019|
|Station||3 Months Total||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall (mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking||Forecasted Probs||Verification|
|Port Moresby (1875-2019)||153.2||172.0||291.0||202.2||37/115||49/42/9||Consistent|
|Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlooks using SCOPIC for February to April 2020|
|Station||Below Normal (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Normal (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Above Normal (prob)||Leps Rate(%)||Hit Rate (%)|
|Port Moresby (1875-2019)||43||471.9||31||592.9||26||10||46|
|Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlooks using POAMA2 for February to April 2020|
|Station||Lower Tercile (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Middle Tercile (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Upper Tercile (prob)|