|Rainfall for September 2019|
Above normal rainfall was recorded at Wewak and Port Moresby whilst normal rainfall was recorded at Nadzab, Vanimo and Goroka. The remaining stations recorded below normal rainfall. Momote recorded its 8th driest September on record whilst Port Moresby recorded its 3rd wettest September on record.
|Accumulated rainfall for July to September 2019|
Port Moresby recorded above normal rainfall whilst Vanimo and Momote recorded below normal rainfall. The remaining stations recorded normal rainfall. The outlook issued in August was inconsistent at Vanimo, Momote and Port Moresby, and near-consistent all other monitoring stations.
|Outlooks for November 2019 to January 2020|
|The outlook offers little guidance as the chances of below normal, normal and above normal are similar for all monitoring stations.|
The outlook favours above normal rainfall at Nadzab, the New Guinea Islands, Misima and Port Moresby. At Madang and Daru, the outlook shows near-equal chances of normal and above normal, with below normal the least likely. For Wewak, the outlook offers little guidance as the chances of below normal, normal and above normal rainfall are similar.
|Valid As Of: 2019-10-16 15:34:04|
|Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - September 2019|
|Station||July 2019||August 2019||September 2019||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall(mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking|
|Port Moresby (1875-2019)||26.8||66.7||102.4||10.6||31||21||120/122|
|Table 2: Three-Month Rainfall for July to September 2019|
|Station||3 Months Total||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall (mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking||Forecasted Probs||Verification|
|Port Moresby (1875-2019)||195.9||45.7||94.3||67||100/104||39/31/30||Inconsistent|
|Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlook using SCOPIC for November 2019 to January 2020|
|Station||Below Normal (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Normal (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Above Normal (prob)||Leps Rate(%)||Hit Rate (%)|
|Port Moresby (1875-2019)||36||344.1||36||476.6||28||19||41|
|Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlook using POAMA2 for November 2019 to January 2020|
|Station||Lower Tercile (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Middle Tercile (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Upper Tercile (prob)|