Summary Statment



Rainfall for August 2018

Normal to above normal rainfall was received across the country. Madang recorded the 4th highest rainfall on record for the month of August while Port Moresby recorded the 7th highest. Nadzab station's rainfall was not available.



Accumulated rainfall for June to August 2018, including outlook verification

Below normal rainfall was received at Vanimo. Madang, Goroka and Momote received above normal rainfall whilst the rest of the monitoring stations received normal. The forecasts were consistent at Madang and Vanimo, inconsistent at Momote and Near consistent for the rest of the monitoring stations. Three months total was not available for Nadzab station.



Outlooks for October to December 2018

1. SCOPIC

Madang and Misima: the outlook shows below normal as the most likely outcome, with normal the next most likely. Above normal is the least likely. Nadzab: mixed outlook with similar chances for below normal and above normal, near normal is the least likely outcome Wewak, Vanimo and Port Moresby: the outlook shows near-equal likelihood of below normal and normal rainfall. Above normal is the least likely. Highlands & NGI Region: the outlook offers little guidance as the chances of above n

2. POAMA

The POAMA model favors below normal for NAdzab, Misima and Port Moresby. Normal favored for Daru and above normal is favored for the rest of the monitoring stations.



Valid As Of: 2018-09-26 14:22:07

Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - August 2018
StationJune 2018July 2018August 201833%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall(mm)Median Rainfall (mm)Ranking
Madang (1944-2018)211.497.6260.463.2141.599.066/69
Nadzab (1973-2018)71.2173.081.9151.0111.3
Wewak (1956-2018)257.0178.0116.0115.2209.7141.522/63
Vanimo (1918-2018)189.0177.4145.0133.9193.3163.625/63
Goroka (1948-2018)86.680.0114.447.084.065.244/55
Momote (1949-2018)334.8435.4299.0221.0326.0270.738/64
Kavieng (1916-2018)163.8289.8261.4160.6255.3206.063/87
Misima (1917-2018)124.8223.4142.258.9184.0132.049/93
Port Moresby (1875-2018)1.421.679.46.824.313.7112/119
Table 2: Three Month Rainfall - June to August 2018
Station3 Months Total33%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall (mm)Median Rainfall (mm)RankingForecasted ProbsVerification
Madang (1944-2018)569.4402.0528.0466.251/6810/37/53Consistent
Nadzab (1973-2018)294.8404.6329.034/29/37
Wewak (1956-2018)551.0481.8620.5560.131/6320/34/46Near-consistent
Vanimo (1918-2018)511.4513.2632.3559.421/6139/31/30Consistent
Goroka (1948-2018)281.0170.6240.0191.044/5130/36/34Near-consistent
Momote (1949-2018)1069.2812.01064.7967.042/9341/30/29Inconsistent
Kavieng (1916-2018)715.0581.3801.0711.444/8634/34/32Near-consistent
Misima (1917-2018)490.4362.0681.3510.541/9014/37/49Near-consistent
Port Moresby (1875-2018)102.453.0103.781.869/10523/32/45Near-consistent
Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlook using SCOPIC for October to December 2018
StationBelow Normal (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Normal (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Above Normal (prob)Leps Rate(%)Hit Rate (%)
Madang (1944-2018)41847.7361084.9231448
Nadzab (1973-2018)40315.718403.142860
Wewak (1956-2018)39539.139650.7221250
Vanimo (1918-2018)39564.138697.9231859
Goroka (1948-2018)34424.032601.634-322
Momote (1949-2018)33689.037866.930-138
Kavieng (1916-2018)34709.536870.930-134
Misima (1917-2018)39560.934756.227841
Port Moresby (1875-2018)41173.641267.7182656
Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlook using POAMA2 for October to December 2018
StationLower Tercile (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Middle Tercile (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Upper Tercile (prob)
Madang3681624103140
Nadzab55252.01234733
Wewak215051861061
Momote216891882761
Kavieng186721285470
Misima435062164936
Port Moresby58119624536
Daru52496533730