|Rainfall for January 2018|
Rainfall for the month of January was below-normal at Momase Region, Highlands and Momote station; normal at Wewak and Misima; and above normal at Kavieng and Port Moresby.
|Accumulated rainfall for November 2017 to January 2018, including outlook verification:|
Rainfall for the last three months was below normal at Vanimo and Momote; above normal at Madang, Wewak, Kavieng and Port Moresby; while the remaining three stations recorded normal rainfall. Forecasts were near-consistent for all stations except at Wewak with consistent forecast. Skills range from very low to high.
|Outlooks for March to May 2018|
|The SCOPIC seasonal rainfall outlook for March to May 2018 shows little guidance as the chances of above normal, normal and below normal rainfall are similar for Madang, Nadzab, Vanimo and Momote.
The outlook for Wewak shows normal as the most likely outcome, with above normal the next most likely. Below normal is the least likely.
Goroka and Kavieng stations show below normal rainfall as the most likely, with normal as the next most likely for Goroka whilst above normal the next most likely f|
The POAMA model favors normal rainfall for Daru with above normal the next most likely. The outlook at Madang station shows equal chances for below normal and above normal totals; normal is the least likely outcome. At all the other stations below normal rainfall is favored or the most likely outcome.
|Valid As Of: 2018-02-14 16:36:20|
|Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - January 2018|
|Station||November 2017||December 2017||January 2018||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall(mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking|
|Port Moresby (1875-2018)||5.8||172.0||320.8||133.1||223.8||177.8||120/130|
|Table 2: Three Month Rainfall - November 2017 to January 2018|
|Predictors and Period used: NINO3.4 SST Anomalies for August to September 2017|
|Station||3 Months Total||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall (mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking||Forecasted Probs||Verification|
|Port Moresby (1875-2018)||498.6||299.7||424.6||365.0||99/118||27/37/36||Near-consistent|
|Table 3: Seasonal Climate outlook using SCOPIC for March to May|
|Predictors and Period used: Nino3.4 SST anomalies for December 2017 to January 2018|
|Station||Below Normal (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Normal (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Above Normal (prob)||Leps Rate(%)||Hit Rate (%)|
|Port Moresby (1875-2018)||25||308.1||32||450.4||43||3.6||39.4|
|Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlook using POAMA2 for March to May 2018|
|Station||Lower Tercile (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Middle Tercile (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Upper Tercile (prob)|