Summary Statement



Rainfall for January 2020

Rainfall was above normal at Nadzab, Wewak and Goroka, below normal at Vanimo and Kavieng, and normal at rest of the monitoring stations. Wewak recorded its third highest rainfall for January in 65 years of record.



Accumulated rainfall for November 2019 to January 2020

Below normal rainfall was recorded in the Momase Region and at Port Moresby, whilst normal rainfall was recorded at Goroka and Momote. Above normal rainfall was received at Wewak and Kavieng. The outlook issued in October was near-consistent at all locations. Wewak had its third wettest November-January period in 62 years of record. A three-month total was not available for Misima station.



Outlooks for March to May 2020

1. SCOPIC

Wewak and Southern Region - the outlook shows below normal rainfall as the most likely outcome with normal the next most likely. Above normal is the least likely except for Wewak. Goroka - the outlook shows above normal as the most likely with normal the next most likely. Below normal is the least likely. NGI Region, Momase except Wewak - the outlook offers little guidance as the chances of above normal, normal and below normal are similar (Climatology). Confidence ranges from very low to good.

2. POAMA

Daru - the outlook favours normal rainfall. Kavieng - the outlook for March to may is mixed, with similar chances for below normal and above normal totals, normal is the least likely. Remaining monitoring sites - the outlook favours below normal rainfall.



Valid As Of: 2020-03-10 10:58:26

Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - January 2020
StationNovember 2019December 2019January 202033%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall(mm)Median Rainfall (mm)Ranking
Madang (1944-2020)294.2296.4329.6274.8377.7336.634/72
Nadzab (1973-2020)90.090.2186.4137.8182.5155.633/46
Wewak (1894-2020)319.6165.8239.4110.2159.2135.163/65
Vanimo (1918-2020)156.0271.0209.0214.8342.5285.326/69
Goroka (1948-2020)154.4154.0288.8198.2266.6226.041/58
Momote (1949-2020)294.2240.6306.0245.6319.3280.039/64
Kavieng (1916-2020)557.4206.4228.2264.6359.9319.723/89
Misima (1917-2020)238.2298.8197.1308.4268.055/92
Port Moresby (1875-2020)87.80.8199.4148.0235.0193.680/132
Table 2: Three-Month Rainfall for November 2019 to January 2020
Station3 Months Total33%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall (mm)Median Rainfall (mm)RankingForecasted ProbsVerification
Madang (1944-2020)920.2960.01127.21038.518/7132/34/34Near-consistent
Nadzab (1973-2020)366.6381.5477.9410.815/4533/33/34Near-consistent
Wewak (1894-2020)724.8349.8454.4480.660/6235/36/29Near-consistent
Vanimo (1918-2020)636.0674.9854.8737.620/6134/33/33Near-consistent
Goroka (1948-2020)597.2524.7641.9588.027/5033/34/33Near-consistent
Momote (1949-2020)840.8734.2898.3830.034/6332/34/34Near-consistent
Kavieng (1916-2020)992.0777.0949.9848.636/8732/34/34Near-consistent
Misima (1917-2020)602.0752.0672.635/33/32
Port Moresby (1875-2020)288.0344.1476.6402.835/12036/36/28Near-consistent
Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlook using SCOPIC for March to May 2020
StationBelow Normal (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Normal (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Above Normal (prob)Leps Rate(%)Hit Rate (%)
Madang (1944-2020)34999.3341203.032-221
Nadzab (1973-2020)29359.535428.736-17
Wewak (1894-2020)40511.526644.934142
Vanimo (1918-2020)33666.531839.536-239
Goroka (1948-2020)28491.530597.642532
Momote (1949-2020)36745.029928.535-231
Kavieng (1916-2020)29798.537947.035-137
Misima (1917-2020)46688.836960.8181949
Port Moresby (1875-2020)42364.633479.7251049
Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlook using POAMA2 for March to May 2020
StationLower Tercile (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Middle Tercile (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Upper Tercile (prob)
Madang52100212120136
Nadzab642981240924
Wewak55508963036
Momote456981985436
Kavieng397692299839
Misima8866579415
Port Moresby70327549825
Daru58288093915