|Rainfall for June 2017 (Refer to Table 1)|
Rainfall for the month of June was normal for Madang and Vanimo, above normal for Nadzab, Wewak and Momote, while the rest of the monitoring stations recorded below normal.
|Accumulated rainfall for April to June 2017, including outlook verification (Refer to Table 2)|
Rainfall for the last three months was normal at Vanimo, above normal at Nadzab and Momote, and below normal for the rest of the monitoring stations. Forecasts were consistent at Kavieng, near-consistent at nadzab, Vanimo and Momote whilst Madang, Goroka and Port Moresby forecasts were inconsistent. The skills range from very low to high.
|Outlook for August to October 2017|
1. SCOPIC (Refer to Table 3)
|The SCOPIC seasonal rainfall outlook for August to October 2017 shows: |
Below normal is favoured for the three monitoring stations, whilst there is little guidance for Vanimo as the chances of below normal, normal and above normal are similar.
Little guidance as the chances of below normal, normal and above normal are similar.
Little guidance as the chances of below, normal and above normal are similar.
Below normal is the favoured or most likely outcome for the region.
The POAMA model favours normal for Madnag, Wewak and Daru whilst below normal is favoured for the rest of the monitoring stations.
|Valid As Of: 2017-07-27 16:08:14|
|Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - June 2017|
|Station||April 2017||May 2017||June 2017||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall(mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking|
|Port Moresby (1875-2017)||94.4||0.6||0.6||11.0||43.3||22.9||4/120|
|Table 2: Three Months Rainfall - April to June 2017|
|Predictor: NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Period: January to February 2017|
|Station||3 Months Total||33%tile Rainfall (mm)||67%tile Rainfall (mm)||Median Rainfall (mm)||Ranking||Forecasted Probs||Verification|
|Madang (1944-2017)||868.0||900.7||1083.8||1010.2||20/66||30/34/36 (9.8)||Inconsistent|
|Nadzab (1973-2017)||429.2||268.8||352.0||316.2||37/41||32/35/33 (-3.0)||Near-consistent|
|Wewak (1894-2017)||566.2||671.6||641.8||31/35/34 (-1.1)|
|Vanimo (1918-2017)||704.8||574.6||728.5||648.4||38/61||34/33/33 (-2.2)||Near-consistent|
|Goroka (1948-2017)||289.4||335.0||428.0||393.0||12/50||33/33/34 (-2.3)||Inconsistent|
|Momote (1949-2017)||1128.0||705.4||893.8||809.8||65/68||33/34/33 (-1.4)||Near-consistent|
|Kavieng (1916-2017)||576.0||688.9||898.4||788.8||12/85||35/34/31 (0.2)||Consistent|
|Misima (1917/2017)||615.0||919.4||764.9||29/39/32 (22.6)|
|Port Moresby (1875-2017)||95.6||174.3||268.2||207.8||11/116||27/36/37 (10.7)||Inconsistent|
|Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlooks for August to October 2017|
|Predictors: NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Period: May to June 2017|
|Station||Below Normal (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Normal (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Above Normal (prob)||Leps Rate(%)||Hit Rate (%)|
|Port Moresby (1875-2017)||42||58.8||23||96.4||35||-0.5||35.8|
|Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlooks using POAMA2 for August to October 2017|
|Station||Lower Tercile (prob)||33%ile rainfall (mm)||Middle Tercile (prob)||67%ile rainfall (mm)||Upper Tercile (prob)|