National Weather Service


Rainfall for January 2018

Rainfall for the month of January was below-normal at Momase Region, Highlands and Momote station; normal at Wewak and Misima; and above normal at Kavieng and Port Moresby.

Accumulated rainfall for November 2017 to January 2018, including outlook verification:

Rainfall for the last three months was below normal at Vanimo and Momote; above normal at Madang, Wewak, Kavieng and Port Moresby; while the remaining three stations recorded normal rainfall. Forecasts were near-consistent for all stations except at Wewak with consistent forecast. Skills range from very low to high.

Outlooks for March to May 2018


The SCOPIC seasonal rainfall outlook for March to May 2018 shows little guidance as the chances of above normal, normal and below normal rainfall are similar for Madang, Nadzab, Vanimo and Momote. The outlook for Wewak shows normal as the most likely outcome, with above normal the next most likely. Below normal is the least likely. Goroka and Kavieng stations show below normal rainfall as the most likely, with normal as the next most likely for Goroka whilst above normal the next most likely f


The POAMA model favors normal rainfall for Daru with above normal the next most likely. The outlook at Madang station shows equal chances for below normal and above normal totals; normal is the least likely outcome. At all the other stations below normal rainfall is favored or the most likely outcome.

Valid As Of: 2018-02-14 16:36:20

Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - January 2018
StationNovember 2017December 2017January 201833%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall(mm)Median Rainfall (mm)Ranking
Madang (1944-2018)405.8483.8241.2265.6381.4340.416/70
Nadzab (1973-2018)80.0267.086.0134.0178.9154.57/44
Wewak (1894-2018)348.0164.6112.4107.5158.0134.425/63
Vanimo (1918-2018)161.8280.4110.2202.6339.8269.07/67
Goroka (1948-2018)155.0330.0155.2203.3266.6226.011/56
Momote (1949-2018)139.0197.4150.0244.3319.5277.710/62
Kavieng (1916-2018)237.0506.2497.0272.6362.0334.681/87
Misima (1917-2018)202.8170.4262.2197.1317.4276.043/90
Port Moresby (1875-2018)5.8172.0320.8133.1223.8177.8120/130
Table 2: Three Month Rainfall - November 2017 to January 2018
Predictors and Period used: NINO3.4 SST Anomalies for August to September 2017
Station3 Months Total33%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall (mm)Median Rainfall (mm)RankingForecasted ProbsVerification
Madang (1944-2018)1130.8953.01120.01036.247/6934/32/34 Near-consistent
Nadzab (1973-2018)133.0370.7474.5409.724/4334/33/33Near-consistent
Wewak (1894-2018)625.0435.9544.7479.953/6029/35/36Consistent
Vanimo (1918-2018)552.4642.2832.5734.812/5933/33/34Near-consistent
Goroka (1948-2018)640.2516.4642.0569.431/4834/3234Near-consistent
Momote (1949-2018)468.4736.6894.7833.02/6134/34/32Near-consistent
Kavieng (1916-2018)1240.2784.7945.1849.082/8534/32/34Near-consistent
Misima (1917-2018)635.4599.3780.6691.537/8731/34/35Near-consistent
Port Moresby (1875-2018)498.6299.7424.6365.099/11827/37/36Near-consistent
Table 3: Seasonal Climate outlook using SCOPIC for March to May
Predictors and Period used: Nino3.4 SST anomalies for December 2017 to January 2018
StationBelow Normal (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Normal (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Above Normal (prob)Leps Rate(%)Hit Rate (%)
Madang (1944-2018)33999.3331203.034-1.728.8
Nadzab (1973-2018)36362.136428.728-0.314.6
Wewak (1894-2018)24511.842645.9341.042.6
Vanimo (1918-2018)32615.938839.930-1.834.0
Goroka (1948-2018)40610.038610.0224.642.9
Momote (1949-2018)33744.035928.032-1.636.1
Kavieng (1916-2018)43772.826943.8313.049.2
Misima (1917-2018)15693.536998.74918.046.9
Port Moresby (1875-2018)25308.132450.4433.639.4
Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlook using POAMA2 for March to May 2018
StationLower Tercile (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Middle Tercile (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Upper Tercile (prob)
Madang 45100210120145
Nadzab 52298540943
Momote (1949-2018)376983384530
Kavieng (1916-2018)427693099828
Misima 64665694130
Port Moresby55327649839