PAPUA NEW GUINEA GOVERNMENT

National Weather Service

Summary Statement



Rainfall for April 2017 (Refer to Table 1)

Rainfall for the month of April was normal at Goroka and Port Moresby and above normal for Nadzab, Kavieng and Momote.



Accoumulated rainfall for February to April 2017, including outlook verification (Refer to Table 2)

Rainfall for the last three months was normal at Nadzab, Goroka and Port Moresby whilst above normal at Momote. Forecasts were near-consistent at all sites. The skills range from very low to moderate.



Outlook for June to August 2017

1. SCOPIC (Refer to Table 3)

The SCOPIC seasonal rainfall outlook for June to August 2017 shows:

  • Momase Region

Below normal is the most likely for three monitoring stations, whilst above normal is the most likely at Vanimo.



  • New Guinea Islands Region

Normal is the most likely for Momote, whilst Kavieng has a roughly equal chance of below normal, normal or above normal.



  • Highlands Region

Little guidance as there is roughly an equal chance of either below normal, normal or above normal for Goroka.



  • Southern Region

Below normal is the most likely for both monitoring stations, with normal the next most likely category.



  • Confidence range from very low to very high.




2. POAMA (Refer to Table 4)

The POAMA model favours below normal for Port Moresby, Misima and wewak. Normal is favoured for Daru whilst above normal is favoured for the New Guinea Islands Region and Nadzab.



Valid As Of: 2017-05-19 14:39:41

Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - April 2017
StationFebruary 2017 TotalMarch 2017 TotalApril 2017 Total33%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall(mm)Median Rainfall (mm)Ranking
Madang (1944-2017)330.2461.0404.4
Nadzab (1973-2017)46.0203.2201.486.4135.0103.834/43
Wewak (1894-2017)104.2140.6163.0235.5186.4
Vanimo (1918-2017)346.0147.0180.8346.2216.2
Goroka (1949-2017)228.0239.0168.6158.7223.7200.021/55
Momote (1949-2017)211.8457.2405.2246.5293.7273.660/68
Kavieng (1916-2017)467.0367.0262.9312.4285.972/88
Misima (1917-2017)213.6346.2267.0
Port Moresby (1875-2017)122.0324.194.474.2129.5104.258/127
Table 2: Three Months Rainfall - February to April 2017
Predictor: NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Period: November to December 2016
Station3 Months Total33%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall (mm)Median Rainfall (mm)RankingForecasted ProbsVerification
Madang (1944-2017)929.61138.51035.735/31/34 (-1.2)
Nadzab (1973-2017)450.6370.8512.9461.419/4238/30/32 (0.6)Near-consistent
Wewak (1894-2017)436.1522.6484.429/37/34 (-1.2)
Vanimo (1918-2017)682.0911.8789.638/34/28 (1.3)
Goroka (1949-2017)635.6604.8746.6673.422/5337/34/29 (0.4)Near-consistent
Momote (1949-2017)1074.2751.9922.5797.861/6733/33/34 (-1.7)Near-consistent
Kavieng (1916-2017)793.7973.2884.240/30/30 (2.4)
Misima (1917-2017)762.7979.0848.217/37/46 (25.7)
Port Moresby (1875-2017)540.5433.7593.1513.868/12621/38/41 (9.5)Near-consistent
Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlooks for June to August 2017
Predictors: NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Period: March to April 2017
StationBelow Normal (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Normal (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Above Normal (prob)Leps Rate(%)Hit Rate (%)
Madang (1944-2017)53404.536530.11127.252.3
Nadzab (1973-2017)35281.23402.732-2.929.3
Wewak (1894-2017)48467.233618.61915.945.9
Vanimo (1918-2017)26510.135625.9391.735.2
Goroka (1949-2017)37169.531283.432-1.228.0
Momote (1949-2017)26745.2391051.2350.941.8
Kavieng (1916-2017)31561.233804.436-1.615.0
Misima (1917-2017)59362.532688.3928.954.0
Port Moresby (1875-2017)4155.437102.6227.340.3
Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlooks using POAMA2 for June to August 2017
StationLower Tercile (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Middle Tercile (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Upper Tercile (prob)
Madang
Nadzab362591635048
Wewak455141361942
Momote1881321103661
Kavieng30522980961
Misima82310651712
Port Moresby6150910130
Daru5125862089