PAPUA NEW GUINEA GOVERNMENT

National Weather Service

Summary Statement



Rainfall for January 2017

Rainfall for the month of January was normal for Kavieng and above normal for Wewak, Kavieng and Port Moresby whilst Madang received below normal rainfall. (Refer to Table 1)



Accumulated rainfall for November 2016 to January 2017, including outlook verification

Rainfall for the last three months was normal Kavieng and Port Moresby, Wewak and Momote whilst Madang received below normal rainfall. Forecasts were consistent for Madang and Wewak, near consistent for Kavieng and Port Moresby whilst inconsistent for Momote station. The skills range from very low to high. (Refer to Table 2)



Outlook for – March to April 2017

1. SCOPIC

The SCOPIC seasonal rainfall outlook for March to May 2017 shows:

  • Momase Region

The most likely outlook for Wewak is normal. There is little guidance for the other 3 stations as chances of below normal, normal and above normal are similar respectively.



  • New Guinea Islands Region

Below normal is favoured for Kavieng. Momote has an equal chance of below normal to normal to above normal occurring.



  • Highlands Region

There is an equal chance of either below normal to normal to above normal rainfall for Goroka.



  • Southern Region

Above normal is favoured for Misima and Port Moresby with normal the next most likely.



  • Confidence range from very low to high.




2. POAMA

POAMA Outlooks not available.



Valid As Of: 2017-02-22 13:49:27

Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - January 2017
StationNovember 2016December 2016January 201733%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall(mm)Median Rainfall (mm)Ranking
Madang (1944-2017)366.0248.8281.3379.5344.0
Nadzab (1973-2017)156.4
Wewak (1894-2017)215.0196.4208.4101.8157.4130.8
Vanimo (1918-2017)399.8
Goroka (1949-2017)235.0175.8
Momote (1949-2017)364.4266.2280.8239.7319.1271.1
Kavieng (1916-2017)233.0221.8374.6272.5360.7322.9
Misima (1917-2017)
Port Moresby (1875-2017)15.4154.0233.2131.2216.3172.0
Table 2: Three Monthly Rainfall (November 2016 - January 2017)
Predictor: NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Period: September to October 2016
Station3 Months Total33%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall (mm)Median Rainfall (mm)RankingForecasted ProbsVerification
Madang (1944-2017)959.01132.01041.235/32/33 (-1.4)
Nadzab (1973-2017)381.0442.6403.736/32/32 (-2.4)
Wewak (1894-2017)619.8435.9543.1480.423/36/41 (7.5)
Vanimo (1918-2017)640.2822.8731.332/33/35 (-2.4)
Goroka (1949-2017)516.4641.8569.435/31/37 (-2.1)
Momote (1949-2017)911.4731.0883.7827.436/33/31 (1.0)Inconsistent
Kavieng (1916-2017)829.4776.0949.7849.235/32/33 (-1.6)Near consistent
Misima (1917-2017)602.0778.4702.026/37/37 (2.2)
Port Moresby (1875-2017)402.6297.4422.6362.020/36/44 (15.0)Near consistent
Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlooks for March to May 2017
Predictors: NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Period: November to December 2016
StationBelow Normal (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Normal (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Above Normal (prob)Leps Rate(%)Hit Rate (%)
Madang (1944-2017)31997.9351205.634-1.521.5
Nadzab (1973-2017)38361.832428.6300.522.5
Wewak (1894-2017)27511.539648.7341.043.3
Vanimo (1918-2017)33605.536840.231-1.832.7
Goroka (1949-2017)38491.736611.3263.838.3
Momote (1949-2017)34716.834894.332-1.415.2
Kavieng (1916-2017)39751.027946.8341.950.0
Misima (1917-2017)19686.2381010.04319.348.4
Port Moresby (1875-2017)27303.634450.5395.042.4