PAPUA NEW GUINEA GOVERNMENT

National Weather Service

Summary Statement



Rainfall for June 2017 (Refer to Table 1)

Rainfall for the month of June was normal for Madang and Vanimo, above normal for Nadzab, Wewak and Momote, while the rest of the monitoring stations recorded below normal.



Accumulated rainfall for April to June 2017, including outlook verification (Refer to Table 2)

Rainfall for the last three months was normal at Vanimo, above normal at Nadzab and Momote, and below normal for the rest of the monitoring stations. Forecasts were consistent at Kavieng, near-consistent at nadzab, Vanimo and Momote whilst Madang, Goroka and Port Moresby forecasts were inconsistent. The skills range from very low to high.



Outlook for August to October 2017

1. SCOPIC (Refer to Table 3)

The SCOPIC seasonal rainfall outlook for August to October 2017 shows:

  • Momase Region

Below normal is favoured for the three monitoring stations, whilst there is little guidance for Vanimo as the chances of below normal, normal and above normal are similar.



  • New Guinea Islands Region

Little guidance as the chances of below normal, normal and above normal are similar.



  • Highlands Region

Little guidance as the chances of below, normal and above normal are similar.



  • Southern Region

Below normal is the favoured or most likely outcome for the region.



  • Confidence range from very low to very high.




2. POAMA

The POAMA model favours normal for Madnag, Wewak and Daru whilst below normal is favoured for the rest of the monitoring stations.



Valid As Of: 2017-07-27 16:08:14

Table 1: Monthly Rainfall - June 2017
StationApril 2017May 2017June 201733%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall(mm)Median Rainfall (mm)Ranking
Madang (1944-2017)309.4371.8186.8155.5225.7205.830/65
Nadzab (1973-2017)201.486.8141.062.8120.678.934/43
Wewak (1894-2017)287.0375.6171.6227.4192.261/62
Vanimo (1918-2017)263.0269.8172.0167.7246.3206.623/63
Goroka (1948-2017)168.698.822.045.075.056.07/53
Momote (1949-2017)405.2394.0328.8222.7317.5277.248/69
Kavieng (1916-2017)367.087.0122.0192.0272.9218.08/87
Misima (1917/2017)121.7282.9205.0
Port Moresby (1875-2017)94.40.60.611.043.322.94/120
Table 2: Three Months Rainfall - April to June 2017
Predictor: NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Period: January to February 2017
Station3 Months Total33%tile Rainfall (mm)67%tile Rainfall (mm)Median Rainfall (mm)RankingForecasted ProbsVerification
Madang (1944-2017)868.0900.71083.81010.220/6630/34/36 (9.8)Inconsistent
Nadzab (1973-2017)429.2268.8352.0316.237/4132/35/33 (-3.0)Near-consistent
Wewak (1894-2017)566.2671.6641.831/35/34 (-1.1)
Vanimo (1918-2017)704.8574.6728.5648.438/6134/33/33 (-2.2)Near-consistent
Goroka (1948-2017)289.4335.0428.0393.012/5033/33/34 (-2.3)Inconsistent
Momote (1949-2017)1128.0705.4893.8809.865/6833/34/33 (-1.4)Near-consistent
Kavieng (1916-2017)576.0688.9898.4788.812/8535/34/31 (0.2)Consistent
Misima (1917/2017)615.0919.4764.929/39/32 (22.6)
Port Moresby (1875-2017)95.6174.3268.2207.811/11627/36/37 (10.7)Inconsistent
Table 3: Seasonal Climate Outlooks for August to October 2017
Predictors: NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Period: May to June 2017
StationBelow Normal (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Normal (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Above Normal (prob)Leps Rate(%)Hit Rate (%)
Madang (1944-2017)70406.423629.5725.053.8
Nadzab (1973-2017)51242.122395.1273.153.8
Wewak (1894-2017)72495.820662.1826.450.0
Vanimo (1918-2017)36485.636553.828-1.826.0
Goroka (1948-2017)34272.332378.234-2.622.4
Momote (1949-2017)33646.430901.237-1.526.9
Kavieng (1916-2017)35507.431711.534-2.015.3
Misima (1917/2017)65456.031766.7429.152.4
Port Moresby (1875-2017)4258.82396.435-0.535.8
Table 4: Seasonal Climate Outlooks using POAMA2 for August to October 2017
StationLower Tercile (prob)33%ile rainfall (mm)Middle Tercile (prob)67%ile rainfall (mm)Upper Tercile (prob)
Madang333114056827
Nadzab55199934236
Wewak124544962739
Momote426502185737
Kavieng644891568921
Misima552261559330
Port Moresby6436128124
Daru5638313412